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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 14 at the 70

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(3:33) 9-S.Lechler punts 38 yards to IND 32, Center-46-J.Weeks. 17-G.Whalen pushed ob at IND 35 for 3 yards (46-J.Weeks). PENALTY on HOU-30-K.Johnson, Player Out of Bounds on Punt, 5 yards, enforced at IND 35.

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.61 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 70, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 28, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model