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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 16 at the 86

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(9:22) 19-B.Anger punts 61 yards to TB 25, Center-46-C.Tinker. 43-B.Rainey to JAX 17 for 58 yards (35-D.McCray).

The Three Options

GO -3.29 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.31 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 86, worth -5.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 44, worth -2.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model