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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 13

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(10:07) 2-J.Myers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.70 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 23, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model