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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 18

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(10:22) 10-C.Barth 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +3.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.14 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 18, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +2.27 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 28, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP