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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 29

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 24

What Actually Happened

(:34) 10-C.Barth 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum. TB 76-Smith eligible

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.81 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 29, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 39, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model