Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 15 at the 85

Jacksonville Jaguars 24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31

(13:41) 19-B.Anger punts 50 yards to TB 35, Center-46-C.Tinker. 43-B.Rainey to JAX 40 for 25 yards (58-J.Tripp).

The Three Options

GO -3.17 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.24 EP
71% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 85, worth -5.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model