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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 45

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(4:40) 5-J.Schum punts 23 yards to JAX 22, Center-48-A.DePaola, downed by TB-46-J.Lane.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.61 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 45, worth -2.03 EP
KICK -0.84 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model