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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 76

New Orleans Saints 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(13:41) 4-B.Fields punts 57 yards to PHI 19, Center-47-J.Drescher, downed by NO-20-B.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO -2.26 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.77 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 76, worth -4.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 34, worth -2.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model