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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 80

New Orleans Saints 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(10:25) 4-B.Fields punts 49 yards to PHI 31, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.76 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 80, worth -4.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.37 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 37, worth -2.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP