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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 39

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(13:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-S.Bradford pass incomplete deep right to 14-R.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.19 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 39, worth -1.78 EP
KICK +0.07 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 48, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model