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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 87

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(1:44) 8-D.Jones punts 50 yards to NO 37, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 23-M.Murphy to NO 46 for 9 yards (42-C.Maragos). PENALTY on NO-20-B.Dixon, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NO 38.

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.94 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 87, worth -4.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -1.98 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 45, worth -1.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model