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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 21

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(:15) 6-C.Sturgis 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +3.86 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +2.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.90 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 31, worth -0.39 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model