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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 11

Philadelphia Eagles 23 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(:34) 6-C.Sturgis 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.40 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.52 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 11, worth +0.50 EP
KICK +2.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.70 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 22, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT +0.50 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model