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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 23

Philadelphia Eagles 29 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(4:23) 6-C.Sturgis 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.19 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 23, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 33, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model