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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 4

San Francisco 49ers 3 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(1:05) 9-P.Dawson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +3.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.04 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 4, worth +0.18 EP
KICK +2.27 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.45 EP