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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 73

New York Giants 13 – San Francisco 49ers 13

What Actually Happened

(6:04) 9-B.Wing punts 55 yards to SF 18, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 38-J.Hayne to SF 34 for 16 yards (53-J.Brinkley, 94-M.Herzlich).

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.42 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model