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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 16 at the 72

San Francisco 49ers 13 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(4:42) 5-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to NYG 25, Center-86-K.Nelson. 17-D.Harris to NYG 39 for 14 yards (36-D.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -2.71 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.19 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 72, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 30, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model