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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 4

New York Giants 0 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(6:29) 3-J.Brown 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +3.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.34 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 4, worth +0.63 EP
KICK +2.58 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.64 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.27 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP