Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 78

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

(14:07) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to GB 35, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 33-M.Hyde ran ob at GB 44 for 9 yards (46-C.Harkey).

The Three Options

GO -2.69 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.03 EP
64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model