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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 12 at the 82

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(14:24) 6-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to GB 40, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO -3.21 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.69 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 40, worth -2.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model