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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 84

Green Bay Packers 21 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(8:36) 8-T.Masthay punts 47 yards to LA 37, Center-61-B.Goode. 11-T.Austin to LA 35 for -2 yards (23-D.Randall).

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.86 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 84, worth -4.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.10 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 42, worth -2.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP