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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 57

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Green Bay Packers 21

What Actually Happened

(6:33) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker pass deep middle to 38-C.Davis to GB 37 for 20 yards (32-C.Banjo).

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.15 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 57, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model