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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 32

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Green Bay Packers 21

What Actually Happened

(4:19) 4-G.Zuerlein 50 yard field goal is BLOCKED (95-D.Jones), Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.24 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.58 EP
KICK +0.49 EP
What Happened
  • 65% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model