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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 16 at the 35

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Green Bay Packers 21

What Actually Happened

(:52) 4-G.Zuerlein 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.54 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.89 EP
KICK +0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model