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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 19 at the 39

Green Bay Packers 21 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(11:38) 8-T.Masthay punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-61-B.Goode, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.55 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 39, worth -1.59 EP
KICK -0.17 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 48, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model