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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 76

Green Bay Packers 21 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(7:42) 8-T.Masthay punts 52 yards to LA 24, Center-61-B.Goode. 11-T.Austin ran ob at LA 30 for 6 yards (48-J.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.47 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 76, worth -4.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 34, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model