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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 45

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Green Bay Packers 21

What Actually Happened

(3:28) 4-G.Zuerlein 63 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +2.68 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 45, worth -1.55 EP
KICK -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP