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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 41

Green Bay Packers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(1:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 27-E.Lacy right tackle to LA 41 for no gain (25-T.McDonald).

The Three Options

GO +2.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.55 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 41, worth -1.46 EP
KICK -0.23 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.83 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT +0.53 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth +0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model