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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 29

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:23) (Field Goal formation) 7-C.Catanzaro 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.11 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.77 EP
KICK +0.57 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 39, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model