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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 13

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(:51) (Field Goal formation) 7-C.Catanzaro 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

The Three Options

GO +1.78 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.77 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +2.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model