Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 79

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Arizona Cardinals 10

(:21) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 79 yards to end zone, Center-60-G.Warren, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP

55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.20 EP
45% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 79, worth -3.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model