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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 30

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(11:17) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.60 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 40, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model