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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 33

Pittsburgh Steelers 12 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(2:37) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.04 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 33, worth -1.58 EP
KICK +0.57 EP
What Happened
  • 64% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 43, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP