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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 21

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 15

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Field Goal formation) 7-C.Catanzaro 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.81 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model