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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 10

Pittsburgh Steelers 15 – Arizona Cardinals 13

What Actually Happened

(7:21) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.18 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 10, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model