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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 9

Arizona Cardinals 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 25

What Actually Happened

(:21) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass incomplete short right to 13-JA.Brown. Coverage by #22 Gay, Pressure by #97 Heyward.

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
What Happened
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +2.56 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 9, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.90 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.09 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.49 EP