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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 44

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(3:47) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 42 yards to ARI 2, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-25-B.Boykin.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.40 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 44, worth -1.71 EP
KICK -0.56 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.82 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT +0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth +0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP