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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 82

New Orleans Saints 14 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(5:42) 4-B.Fields punts 57 yards to ATL 25, Center-47-J.Drescher. 14-E.Weems to ATL 36 for 11 yards (33-J.Sanford). PENALTY on ATL-23-R.Alford, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 36.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.67 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 82, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.84 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 40, worth -1.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP