Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 64

Atlanta Falcons 7 – New Orleans Saints 14

(12:22) 5-M.Bosher punts 33 yards to NO 31, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 23-M.Murphy.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.30 EP
59% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 64, worth -3.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model