Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 78

Atlanta Falcons 7 – New Orleans Saints 17

(6:52) 5-M.Bosher punts 47 yards to NO 31, Center-47-J.Harris. 23-M.Murphy to NO 37 for 6 yards (14-E.Weems).

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.14 EP
57% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 78, worth -4.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model