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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 2

New Orleans Saints 17 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(2:27) (Run formation) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 82-B.Watson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 2, YAC 0

The Three Options

GO +3.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.23 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 2, worth +0.47 EP
KICK +2.24 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model