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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 29

Atlanta Falcons 14 – New Orleans Saints 31

What Actually Happened

(1:57) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones to NO 13 for 16 yards (31-J.Byrd). Pass 14, YAC 2

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
What Happened
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +1.60 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 29, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 39, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.83 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.11 EP