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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 54

New Orleans Saints 7 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(4:30) 4-B.Fields punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Drescher, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.01 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 54, worth -2.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 16, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP