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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 4

Baltimore Ravens 0 – San Francisco 49ers 6

What Actually Happened

(13:21) 9-J.Tucker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +2.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.12 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 4, worth +0.28 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP