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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 8

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(8:09) 9-P.Dawson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.92 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 8, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP