Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 14 at the 66

San Francisco 49ers 16 – Baltimore Ravens 6

(1:59) 5-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to BAL 24, Center-86-K.Nelson. 10-J.Ross to BAL 33 for 9 yards (36-D.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.52 EP
72% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 66, worth -3.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model