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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 37

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(11:09) 5-B.Pinion punts 22 yards to BAL 15, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.49 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 37, worth -1.55 EP
KICK +0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.58 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 46, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model