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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 27

Baltimore Ravens 13 – San Francisco 49ers 19

What Actually Happened

(13:42) 9-J.Tucker 45 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.16 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
What Happened
  • 79% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 37, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model