4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 2

Baltimore Ravens 13 – San Francisco 49ers 25

What Actually Happened

(5:22) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 11-K.Aiken for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.35 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 2, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +2.35 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model