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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 52

San Francisco 49ers 25 – Baltimore Ravens 20

What Actually Happened

(1:15) 5-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-86-K.Nelson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +0.66 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 52, worth -1.68 EP
KICK -0.81 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 15, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model